Welcome back to another week of FX Analysis!
Commentary / Technical Forecasts
Note: The new format of “long” and “short” term should be viewed as such, there’s no definitive time period. However, I’d say “short” equates to anything less than a month while “long” can last up to a year. No one knows where the market is going, not even me, this FX Weekly Analysis is simply my view on the markets.
USD/CAD: Long term – not sure | Short term – down
- No new development on monthly/weekly charts, but considering the month is ending. I’m going to say that based on the red monthly close and continuous downward movement on the weekly chart, we might see a continued downward move next month. So the short term forecast is now changed to down.
- Long term will be decided after the month of April is finished because March’s candle could’ve simply been a retrace given the previous upswing.
AUD/USD: Long term – not sure | Short term – not sure
- No new development on monthly chart but the weekly does show a doji this week on the weekly trend line. So it’s possible that the trend line will stay in effect to push price down.
- If not, then as I mentioned last week: …the upside move is limited due to the resistance in the 1.06 region. As you can see on the weekly chart, price has been bouncing between 1.062 and 1.016 since August 2012.
EUR/USD: Long term – down | Short term – not sure
- As I mentioned last week:
- Daily/H4 chart still shows price being contained within the bearish flag formation; also, price is currently at the H4 downward trend line.
- EUR/USD has 2 paths this week unlike the other pairs, it can either be determined by the H4 trend line or the bearish flag.
- Although monthly chart shows a big red bar, price is still contained within the bearish flag, so the directionality short term is still not sure.
GBP/USD: Long term – down | Short term – up
- The (hammer) pinbar is confirmed now that the monthly chart has closed. This signals for a possible short term upside move.
- Although the resistance level rejected price at the start of the week, price decided to retrace in the middle of the week which supported the pinbar forming + shows bull strength.
- Keep in mind however, pinbars do not signal guaranteed movement the next bar. It’s just simply one of many signals for a potential bottom/top (bottom in this case).
Until next week, Good Luck Trading!