Trading Journal

Hey everyone,

Exciting week once again, exciting because USD/CAD went the same direction as EUR/USD and GBP/USD, again because this has happened several times this year already! Just like before, I’ll take my losses on EUR/USD and GBP/USD, sorry for the late update. I had intended for this to come out this morning but I had some errands to run first so I was out all morning. So, let’s get onto the analysis…

Monthly Chart

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

H4 Chart

Commentary / Technical Forecasts:

USD/CAD [Long (C)]: Both the lower and upper TL was broken this week but neither led to a break out. USD/CAD managed to break above parity though, but bears took over shortly afterwards for the big bounce down. Going forwards, I like the fact that we broke the weekly downward TL but I don’t like the rejection off of parity. If you look on H4, I drew an upward TL and PA is currently sitting on this line, used to be resistance now will hopefully act as support to help a move upwards. Breaking this going down means more consolidation or possibly just breaking down altogether.

AUD/USD [Short (C)]: Not too sure on this one, the daily chart formed a pinbar on the daily support level which coincides with the lower TL bounce. Could be coincidental or on purpose, this will bounce up a little more to meet the upper TL before bouncing back down (hopefully). So this has a twist this week, two conditions. One for the upper TL to hold and one for the daily support to break once it comes back down.

EUR/USD [Short (C)]: Should be in the same boat as GBP/USD although this is more like AUD/USD in that it has some room to move to the upside before it reaches a TL to bounce back down. If that trendline doesn’t hold, we’re looking at a new trend upwards. Switching to the weekly chart will show the current reversal in progress if all the downward TLs are broken, then it’ll likely be on it’s way back up.

GBP/USD [Short (C)]: It consolidated after the bounce from last week, now it’s back in the same position it was in 2 weeks ago getting ready for a trip downwards assuming the monthly TL holds. If the monthly doesn’t hold, this is starting to look like it may just break that monthly TL and form new lines thereafter.

Until next week, Good Luck Trading!

Brian

Hey everyone,

I finally finished marking the midterms so now I can finally get started on this week’s FX analysis! Trying my best to finish in time before pre-market opens (3pm EST on Oanda). It seems really uncertain right now in the markets, equities are near key levels or were near the last couple weeks anyways. I’m still doing conditions and I’ll justify them with my reasoning to determine if they win/lose the following week.

Monthly Chart

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

H4 Chart

Commentary / Technical Forecasts

The bounce this week on all the X/USD pairs came from news release (which I don’t follow). Each X/USD pair will explain how the bounce affects potential pattern formations.

USD/CAD [Long (C)]: Symmetrical triangle still in play as seen on the H4, overall choppy week. been stuck down on the lower TL for a while now, looking to bounce up to the upper TL to see what happens. This pair has been choppy the whole year so far stuck around parity. It has to hold the lower TL to stay long otherwise if that breaks, then we’re going down.

AUD/USD [Short (C)]: The bounce stops the reversing trend bounce off the monthly TL and moves this back into the flag formation that I was talking about last week. Conditions are now changed and is now based on WTF happens with the flag, it could continue going up and try to reach up to the monthly TL again or it can break and go down.

EUR/USD [Short (C)]: Should still be on it’s way down, daily chart doesn’t show anything too bullish yet. similar to AUD/USD except the flagpole isn’t as prominent. Although, H4 downward TL is broken. Conditions depend on the daily resistance level that’s coming up and a few more levels can be drawn on H4 but I didn’t bother to draw them. We’ll see what happens this week.

GBP/USD [Short (C)]: Bounce was semi expected since I said last week that going down, we’d have to break the daily TL first. Given news as a catalyst, that helped support and now it’s going back to meet the monthly TL. Conditions depend on the reaction of the monthly TL and whether or not that’s broken. Alternatively, it could hold and this breaks down towards the same daily TL to see if it breaks the second time around.

Until next week, Good Luck Trading!

Brian