Hello everyone!
Hope you all had a wonderful week! Mine was pretty decent all things considered and my forecasts turned out pretty good as well, another 100% forecast week! Let’s see if I can keep it up, so let’s get on with this week’s FX Weekly Analysis!
I’ve wanted to do this for a while now but usually takes too long to explain in the comments. However, with the drawings of the projected trajectory of the price action, I can do it easily now. For those of you that have been following my FX Weekly Analysis throughout the past year, you’ll (hopefully) remember that some weeks just flat out have no directionality. Whereby, the FX pairs simply “ranged” or “consolidated” within a channel and depending on where the week started, my forecasts would be right or wrong. Thus, I’m now implementing a “range” forecast which will be denoted ‘R’ in addition to the predicted directionality.
For example, ‘Long/R [C]‘ means I’m forecasting long but it has a chance of ranging (this will be illustrated visually on the charts and there’s a condition in case it doesn’t do either of these and just completely goes opposite.

This week features the new ‘range’ forecast across the board because the markets can’t move in one direction for 2 weeks straight without consolidating a little bit first. It’s required for a healthy run, given the Greece crisis in the Euro zone relative the US’ problems. USD strength has been seen across the board but even that needs to “recover” a little bit by consolidating before continuing onwards.
Monthly Charts

Weekly Charts

Daily Charts

H4 Charts

Commentary / Technical Forecasts:
USD/CAD [Long/R (C)]: Monthly and weekly charts have already punctured and broken thru the higher timeframe lines. Both monthly trendlines were broken with huge momentum likewise for the weekly resistance level. This week however may be different considering it’s been 3 weeks of constant pushing upwards. Despite breaking all the important levels, this does need to consolidate before continuing up otherwise this can run out of steam soon and just crash. H4 doesn’t show the breaking of the trendlines yet, so based on that chart, this can possibly range this week and/or reverse completely. However, playing the higher timeframes given the huge upward momentum, everything can be ignored and this simply keeps moving up this week.
AUD/USD [Short/R (C)]: Like USD/CAD, monthly and weekly timeframes show the weekly trendlines have been broken. The cross that I mentioned last week was completely ignored this week, this will be an important point as price comes back up towards this point. Given the downward momentum, this can certainly just continue downwards and keep on breaking the daily support levels below. However, if any of those daily support levels hold, this could potentially start ranging and/or cause a bounce back up to the cross of the weekly trendlines to continue testing the overall directionality of the trend.
EUR/USD [Short/R (C)]: This forecast as usual is the most important one out of all my forecasts. A couple months ago, this broke the weekly downward trendline then a couple weeks ago, I drew a parallel upward trendline to the old weekly upward trendline to project where a bounce point would happen for this recent decline. That parallel upward trendline just broke this week as seen on all the timeframes. Price almost hit the monthly support level at 1.2591 (from what I drew), giving it a buffer of 40 pips above and below then it was already hit this week and formed a wick on the weekly chart.
What happens now is the question, with the weekly upward trendline broken, this nullifies any hope of EUR/USD trending upwards unless we now form a double bottom. This week and the coming weeks depend on the monthly support level holding or not. If 1.26 breaks, there’s a big gap down to 1.20, otherwise if it holds for this week, it could very well just start to range.
GBP/USD [Short/R (C)]: As I projected last week, the first thing of concern was the daily upward channel formed from January till recently. That trendline was tested and completely ignored this week given the huge downward moment. Getting that out of the way, I mentioned the old weekly downward trendline previously broken might act as support but that was broken as well. The next important line was the newly formed upward monthly trendline which depending on which timeframe you look at, acted as support for now. This is monthly trendline is like the monthly support of EUR/USD.
What happens at this important level determines the action to come in the future. Breaking and closing this month below this trendline may signal that we’re going back inside the old big descending triangle. If it breaks, there are gaps down to to 1.50 and if that breaks, we’re looking even further down to the 1.43 area. Otherwise before the big move down, we still have daily support levels to break thru first. If these daily levels and the monthly holds, this week could range or cause a complete reversal ending the run from the previous 3 weeks.
Until next week, Good Luck Trading!
Brian