The FX Weekly Analysis is now back in full swing now that final exams are done with, summer has started and even Financial Trading School has been launched. Everything else is easy to maintain now, there shouldn’t be anymore interruptions from here on out. I’m excited to start with this week’s analysis since I’m going to try something new with the chart annotations!
Commentary / Technical Forecasts:
Couple things to note first before I begin:
- Monthly charts are updated for USD/CAD and GBP/USD for possible channel formations. These lines are more detailed on the weekly charts, I also included an arrow to show the original line (top lines) used to create parallel lines and dragged this down to align it with the current candles to form a channel.
- For the daily and H4 Charts, I don’t know why I didn’t do this in the past but I’ve now drawn projected trajectories of the potential price action for the upcoming week. I figure a picture is worth a 1000 words right? It’s so much easier for you guys to just look at the picture than to try and figure out WTF I’m saying when I say it’ll “bounce off that trendline or break it or consolidate etc”.
For this week, focus on the arrows drawn on the daily chart. I think those are better represented since it’s zoomed out further than the H4 and there’s more lee-way for movement.
USD/CAD [Long (C)]: We’re now sitting at the 5th/6th touch of the daily trendline, this is make or break time. Given the recent bounce off of the monthly channel line, I can see this breaking out here since NFP on Friday helped push price up. Otherwise, if daily trendline holds, this can bounce back down between daily and monthly TLs to form a short tern symmetrical triangle before continuing to break out.
AUD/USD [Short (C)]: Remember a few weeks ago when GBP/USD broke the monthly trendline, well now that AUD/USD has broken the monthly trendline, this could very well just drop like a rock. It could possibly retrace back up a little bit before the big drop, otherwise if I drew my monthly trendline wrong then it could simply bounce back up, this is the condition in play.
EUR/USD [Short (C)]: We’re nearing the end of the descending triangle, the make or break of the pattern formation will come soon enough. To the upside, we have the weekly and daily trendlines as resistance. To the downside, we have the H4 support line. There’s a higher likelihood of downside play since we’re near the top end of the downward channel, so this could easily drop down. The issue with this has to do with the euro zone, I don’t follow news so I don’t know WTF has been going on right now in the EU.
GBP/USD [Short (C)]: Daily chart is due for some continued consolidation downwards to the daily trendline before continuing upwards for a healthy run. Whereas H4 shows a potential to just go upwards in the immediate future, this is the condition in play, which timeframe shows the better path for price to move?
Until next week, Good Luck Trading!